The Bad Math Behind COVID Hysteria

Forecasts Of Global Plague Were Based On Faulty Modeling

The computer program that generated the doomsday COVID-19 predictions widely adopted by global governments is unreliable and incompetent. That's the conclusion reached by data researchers around the world, as they review an improved version of the code used by disgraced Imperial College epidemiologist Neil Ferguson.

While Imperial College has refused to release the original code used by Ferguson (who has previously been criticized for providing grossly exaggerated predictions to policymakers), they did post an updated version of it on GitHub. Even this version has been excoriated by software engineers and analysts around the world. Here's just a sampling of what the experts are saying:

  • "Imperial College’s model is wrong by an order of magnitude." - Fraser Nelson
  • A “buggy mess that looks more like a bowl of angel hair pasta than a finely tuned piece of programming” - David Richards
  • "If we attempt two completely identical runs, the results are quite different." - University of Edinburgh
  • "This Ferguson Model is such a joke it is either an outright fraud, or it is the most inept piece of programming I may have ever seen in my life." - Martin Armstrong

While there is uncertainty about the impact of mitigation efforts on the spread of COVID-19, evidence is mounting that the virus is far less deadly to the general population than originally assumed, with most infected people experiencing few or no symptoms, and the vast majority of deaths occurring in elderly patients with other serious medical conditions.

It is easy to say that hindsight is 20/20, and that authorities did the best they could. However, in the face of a global lockdown that has shuttered thousands of businesses, lost millions of jobs, and caused incalculable suffering, two important questions must be asked:

1. How quickly can we get back to normal?

2. How do we prevent this from happening again?

The people of the world deserve accountability from the political and academic leaders who have caused emotional distress and financial ruin on a historically unprecedented scale. Simply put, an incompetent computer model from a researcher with a track record of inflated predictions was all it took to lock billions of people in their homes. This should give both leaders and voters reason to demand immediate remediation, accountability and change.

Key Points

  • Computer modeling of COVID deaths by Imperial College was used to justify lockdowns by major government.
  • The Imperial College model has been criticized by researchers as being wildly inaccurate.
  • Dr. Neil Ferguson, who led the Imperial College effort, had a track record of wildly exaggerated forecasts.

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